Organization

UPDATE 29.09 We will meet in “Kursraum 1” of FlexRooms, right next to Bertholdsbrunnen in the center of Freiburg.

The room has windows to ensure proper ventilation. Masks are optional.

You are worried you have nothing to contribute? No worries! Everyone is welcome!

We will decide on using German or English as the main language depending on the people who turn up. Just come, we will figure it out!

Preparation

Please do the following as preparation. If you can’t prepare, come anyway!

• Read If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics
• Read Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters
• Register on Manifold Markets (Google account required) and join the Rationality Freiburg 30.09.2022 group where we will experiment during the meetup
• Register on Metaculus
• Bring a smartphone or laptop to the meetup

Optional reading:

• Podcast interview with Philip Tetlock (46 minutes) or his book “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction”
• Prediction Markets (Gwern)
• Introduction to Prediction Markets, Robin Hanson (video, 18 minutes)

What will we do?

We will discuss predicting the future, based on the texts above.

Afterwards we will turn to practice:

• Make concrete personal predictions for the near future and resolve to track the results
• Try out Metaculus and Manifold Markets

There will be snacks and drinks.

What is this about?

Learn more about us.