When I say I’m 80% sure I will have that project done by Friday, what do I mean by that? What I should mean is that in 8 out of 10 similar situations I would be done by Friday and in 2 out of 10 I would not. In reality people are frequently miscalibrated. When they say 80% it may in fact turn out that only in 5 out of 10 similar projects they would be done by the predicted date.

We had a very successful Rationality Freiburg meetup on a sunny Friday afternoon. We opened our discussion with the Fake Beliefs sequence, and afterward, we played the game Double Crux, which can be a potent tool for resolving disagreements.

Our second Rationality Freiburg meetup took place on June 3rd and shone a lot of light on the topic of rationality despite the gloomy weather forecast.

The first Rationality Freiburg meetup on Friday the 13th was a fantastic, international event with lovely weather and fascinating topics!